We’re not going to lie, this is a long one. But when Lorenzo writes about films, he writes about films. In fact, we don’t know anyone who cares about every minute detail that goes into filmmaking as much as he does. Spoiler alert: he’s a huge Parasite fan.
There are a lot of reasons to not watch the Oscars this year — the unmistakeable lack of female nominations in the Best Director category, for one — so use this guide as your insight into who may win and who will be snubbed without having to tune in on Feb. 9.
Best Picture:
Ford V Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917 – Will Win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite – Should Win
This category is really a three horse race at this point. The only films with a chance to win are 1917 (the clear front-runner after having won top prize at the Golden Globes, DGA’s, and PGA’s, all of which have historically forecasted the Oscar winner), Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. However, Parasite is easily the best movie on this entire list and is tremendously popular with both audiences and critics, and is the best reviewed movie of 2019 on Metacritic. It might just have enough sway and universal love to dethrone 1917.
However, no foreign-language film has ever been able to snag the top prize. And yet, Parasite is the only foreign-language film to win top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Award, so the tide might be shifting in its favor. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could be a surprise upset, especially since it’s a movie about Hollywood and the Oscars have routinely rewarded movies in a similar vein. Frankly, both Parasite and 1917 are much better movies, so we would prefer to see them win.
Best Director:
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) – Will Win/Should Win
This is a bit of a bold prediction as the current front-runner throughout the race has been Sam Mendes (1917) and he is very likely going to win this award. But part of me feels that Parasite has enough universal acclaim and love to snag one of the top prizes. Director Bong Joon-ho is also one of the most popular director names in Hollywood right now and his avuncular charm, combined with his prodigious talent, might be enough to take home this prize. However, all the directors in the list above excluding Todd Phillips (Really? The director of the Hangover Trilogy and Old School over Greta Gerwig?) produced some incredible work this year.
Best Actress:
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story) – Should Win
Saorise Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy) – Will Win
Personally, I’m disappointed that Lupita Nyong’o wasn’t included in this for her absolutely incredible performance in US, and she really should be winning this award. However, with this list it seems pretty certain that Renée Zellweger is going to win her second Academy Award for her performance as Judy Garland. As seen in Rami Malek’s win last year for playing Freddie Mercury, the Oscars have a penchant for rewarding performances in biographical movies about famous musicians but I found Scarlett Johnasson’s work more compelling.
Best Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story) – Will Win/Should Win
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Laura Dern has this award on-lock — this is pretty much a guarantee. The only other performer here with a shot is rising star Florence Pugh (who really should’ve gotten a Best Actress nomination for an incredible performance in Midsommar). Nevertheless, Dern steals ever scene she’s in and this is her award to lose. However, it’s pretty inexcusable that Jennifer Lopez is missing from this list for her performance in Hustlers.
Best Actor:
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story) – Should Win
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) – Will Win
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
This category features another controversial batch of nominations, as noticeable snubs from the past year included Robert De Niro in The Irishman, Eddie Murphy in Dolemite is my Name, Taron Edgerton in Rocketman, George MacKay in 1917, Adam Sandler in Uncut Gems, and Robert Pattinson in The Lighthouse. Unfortunately for them, this year’s group was stacked, and it’s hard to kick anyone else out from this list. Antonio Banderas and Jonathan Pryce were especially surprising nominees; however, this is the first ever Academy-Award nomination for the both of them, and finally gotten deserved recognition after such illustrious careers.
The real prize is a two-horse race between Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix. Phoenix appears to have a sizable lead, as well as the public momentum behind him, and will most likely win. While his performance as the Joker was certainly impressive, this award will come a few years too late as he truly deserved it for The Master. Consequently, Driver, like his co-star Johansson, delivers a captivating performance in Marriage Story. Plus, his fantastic singing in what is an absolutely heart-wrenching and show-stopping moment in the film should alone earn him the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman) – Should Win
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) – Will Win
It’s outrageous that Willem Dafoe isn’t here for his scene-stealing and fascinating performance as a suspicious old seafarer in The Lighthouse. However, since he was snubbed, I personally would have to give this award to Joe Pesci, who came out of an almost 20-year retirement to give a nuanced, laid-back, and yet enormously terrifying performance in The Irishman. It’s remarkable how effective he is at conveying emotions while saying so little. However, it seems all but certain that Brad Pitt is going to win his first Oscar for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (even though he’s actually a co-lead in the film and shouldn’t be eligible for this category). Not to mention this wasn’t even his best performance of the year, as his work in the overlooked Ad Astra is far more compelling. However, this is more of a career award for Pitt.
Best Original Screenplay:
Knives Out – Rian Johnson
Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino – Will Win
Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won – Should Win
You might not expect it, but this category is actually by far the most competitive. There are three films here who each have a solid chance of winning: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Marriage Story, and Parasite. While I’d prefer it to go to one of the latter (although Knives Out also has an fun and unique story), the Academy is a pretty big fan of Tarantino’s, and he probably has enough name recognition to take this award. I don’t know what 1917 is doing in this category especially since there’s barely any dialogue in a solid third of the movie.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman – Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi
Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
Little Women – Greta Gerwig – Will Win/Should Win
The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten
Another tough category to predict as this could either go to The Irishman or to Little Women. Both screenwriters delivered some incredible screenplays, particularly in the case of Steven Zaillan, who managed to condense a complicated story into a “meager” three-and-a-half-hour film. However, I would give the advantage here to Greta Gerwig for her adaptation of the classic novel, Little Women. Her snub from the Best Director category (Again: Really? Todd Phillips?), created a lot of deserved controversy for the Oscars and I’d bet they’ll give her this award in order to make some amends with the public. But make no mistake — Greta is an incredible writer who thoroughly deserves this award and will undoubtedly be a titan of cinema in the future.
Best Animated Feature:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus – Should Win
Missing Link
Toy Story 4 – Will Win
Klaus made me cry a lot.
Best Score:
Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker)
Alexandre Desplat (Little Women) – Should Win
Randy Newman (Marriage Story)
Thomas Newman (1917) – Will Win
John Williams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker)
It’s brother vs brother in this competition (yes they’re actually related). Although, Hildur Guðnadóttir might cause an upset — and deserves some recognition for being only the third woman in the last decade to be nominated in this category (after Volker Bertelmannfor Lion and Mica Levi for Jackie).
Best International Feature:
Corpus Christi (Boże Ciało) -- Poland
Honeyland (Medena Zemja) -- Macedonia
Les Misérables -- France
Pain and Glory (Dolor y Gloria) -- Spain
Parasite (Gisaengchung) -- South Korea – Will Win/Should Win
If you haven’t seen Parasite yet, do yourself a favor and watch it. But don’t you dare sleep on any of these films. They are all better than the vast majority of the English films nominated this year.
Best Documentary Feature:
American Factory by Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert and Jeff Reichert – Will Win
The Cave by Feras Fayyad, Kirstine Barfod, and Sigrid Dyekjær
The Edge of Democracy by Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, and Tiago Pavan
For Sama by Waad Al-Kateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland by Ljubomir Stefanov, Tamara Kotevska, and Atanas Georgiev -- Should Win
Honeyland is a fantastic documentary about a female beekeeper in a small Macedonian village and is a truly exquisite, gorgeous movie. However, I’d expect American Factory to win as critics may find it speaks about themes more relevant to current American politics and will receive more attention.
Best Cinematography:
The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
Joker – Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
1917 – Roger Deakins – Will Win/Should Win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson
This one isn’t even close.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker – Will Win/Should Win
Joker – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
Judy – Jeremy Woodhead
1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White
Someone explain to me how The Joker is nominated in this category? He’s just wearing clown makeup…
Best Costume Design:
The Irishman – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo
Joker – Mark Bridges
Little Women – Jacqueline Durran – Will Win/Should Win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips
Historical period pieces tend to dominate this category so I’d probably wager Little Women takes this, but Once Upon a Time in Hollywood might have a shot as well.
Best Film Editing:
Ford v Ferrari – Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker – Will Win
The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles
Joker – Jeff Groth
Parasite – Yang Jin-mo – Should Win
This award is also a very tight “race”. While Ford V Ferrari’s high octane energy and action scenes probably give it a better chance to win, I personally think it should go to Parasite as it develops tension, intrigue, and suspense in a way that even Hitchcock would be proud. Thelma Schoonmaker, however, has edited every single one of Scorsese’s films and is one of the most famous film editor’s ever, so don’t be surprised if her name recognition helps her win this award.
Best Visual Effects:
Avengers: Endgame – Will Win/Should Win
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Not even close.
Best Production Design:
The Irishman – Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
Jojo Rabbit – Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh – Will Win/Should Win
Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-jun; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo
While I wasn’t a huge fan of the movie, it’s undeniable that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s recreation of LA in the 70’s was effective and had a huge role in setting the tone and rhythm for the movie.
Best Sound Mixing:
Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow
Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson – Will Win/Should Win
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano
1917 is going to win just about every technical award. Including Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.