When discussing the 2024 Republican primary, we must keep one thing in mind — former president Donald Trump will in all likelihood be renominated. Polls show Trump maintaining a substantial lead over every challenger. Poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks Trump lower than other major polling aggregators, at 55.8% of the vote. His closest challenger, Ron DeSantis, clocks in at a comparatively paltry 14.6%. That said, another candidate’s victory is certainly possible. His health and age could spell trouble — he will be 78 on Election Day of 2024, not to mention the slew of recent criminal charges against him.
Just as Trump has been reliably in the lead throughout the primary season, Ron Desantis has been reliably second. After being elected Governor of Florida in 2018, DeSantis became a national political figure due to his support for various hard-right causes. He challenged the scientific consensus on COVID-19 and his opposition to the vaccine has been notably more forceful than Trump’s. DeSantis also banned discussion of gender identity and sexual orientation in kindergarten to 3rd-grade classrooms and signed a six-week ban on abortion. This led to DeSantis surging in early polls, nearly reaching parity with Trump in January 2023. After this initial enthusiasm, support began trending downward in March, and hasn’t stopped since. It has only worsened since he officially joined the race in May. DeSantis’ campaign announcement, hosted by X (formerly Twitter), was plagued by technical difficulties, perhaps foreshadowing a greater awkwardness that has continued to permeate the campaign. DeSantis faded into the background during the first debate and has fallen victim to a number of gaffes, such as flatly stating “Okay” upon learning someone’s name. His staffers have fared no better — a Pride Month attack ad accusing Trump of being too gay-friendly was interwoven with obscure right-wing internet memes resulting in articles describing the video as “bizarre,” “unintelligible,” and, ironically enough, “homoerotic.” Consequently, DeSantis is down nearly 25 points in polling since his January peak.
In addition, there is another major candidate in the running. Vivek Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old entrepreneur, who many argue overshadowed DeSantis at the first debate in Milwaukee. Ramaswamy has advocated various unorthodox policies, such as raising the voting age to 25 (excluding active service members), promoting Bitcoin expansion, ending all aid to Ukraine, and massively downsizing the federal government to the tune of 75% of all federal employees. He is also among the most pro-Trump of the primary field; he has pushed back on criticism of Trump from other candidates and referred to Trump’s indictment as a “national disaster.” While his actual performance at the debate has been controversial, it raised his national profile from a somewhat niche candidate to the top-searched candidate of the night (per Google Trends). Ramaswamy was applauded for his steadfast defense of Trump but received some pushback in other areas — his hardline anti-environmentalist views were openly booed. Veteran debater Chris Christie also caught him in an embarrassing snag, noting that his self-introduction as a “skinny guy with a funny last name” was almost identical to “skinny kid with a funny name,” a quote made at the 2004 Democratic Convention by then-senator and rising star Barack Obama. Other potential issues among the GOP electorate involve his religious beliefs. For example, he refers to himself as a “monotheistic Hindu”, which has the potential to turn off Evangelicals and he is a vegetarian. There is also an outstanding question of how viable his plans for dismantling large portions of the government really are.
Former South Carolina Governor (and Trump-appointed U.S. ambassador to the United Nations) Nikki Haley hopes to resonate with voters supportive of Trump’s policies, but tired of the man himself. She also hopes to reach those repelled by the isolationist foreign policy of Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. Her performance at the first debate was widely lauded in retrospective analyses, leading to a notable rise in national polls. Haley has recently intensified her foreign policy messaging, arguing that she will be “China’s worst nightmare” and accusing Trump (who opposes further aid) of being “weak in the knees” on Ukraine. Haley has also expressed relative moderation on certain issues. She has stated that a national abortion ban should be written off as unfeasible, refuses to blame Democrats alone for the deficit (though she should not be seen as a wholly centrist candidate), and she believes that Ron DeSantis’ “Don’t Say Gay” bill did not go far enough.
In a more ordinary election, Mike Pence, as the former Vice President, would likely be the frontrunner. Pence has a record of Christian Conservatism and a strong past resume. Despite that, he’s polling well below any of the aforementioned candidates and has dropped in national polls since January. Pence’s campaign advocates a return to normalcy, and it shows even in his logo’s font, a bold serif typeface that harkens back to the Reagan-Bush ’80s. Unfortunately for Pence, a large portion of the Republican electorate doesn’t want to go back. His criticism of populism and isolationism and his religious-right rhetoric aren’t going to get him anywhere with Trump supporters, and his stand against Trump on January 6 will likely prove an electoral liability.
Firmly on the moderate side of the party is former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who polls at around 3%. Unlike other challengers, he has had a marked increase since Trump’s polling nadir in early 2023. Christie has taken a strong stance towards supporting Ukraine, visiting Bucha, the site of a massacre of Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops, and runs to the left of the party on other issues, such as marriage equality. Contrasting from other candidates, Christie has pulled no punches when attacking Trump, openly stating that he will not support Trump if he becomes the nominee, that he would never pardon Trump, and that Trump is responsible for the GOP’s underwhelming performance in last year’s midterms. While this message is certainly appealing to those who want Trumpism to go away, the mainstream Republican voter seems to have rejected it — though anything could happen in the 4 months leading up to the Iowa caucus.
There are a number of others running, though none have achieved quite the same level of recognition as the aforementioned candidates. Senator Tim Scott of North Carolina has run on optimistic “American Dream” messaging, with culture war talk thrown in for good measure. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson’s moderate and anti-Trump messaging is similar to Christie's, with a special focus on Trump’s claims of election fraud in 2020. Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, has substantially increased his national profile since his June campaign announcement with polls showing a large number of voters had not heard of him initially. However, he is still lagging behind in name recognition. He focuses his energy on issues heavily, believing in man-made climate change but rejecting mainstream views on how to solve it.
In all likelihood, none of these candidates will win the primary. But that doesn’t mean they should simply be dismissed as irrelevant. Even failed primary challenges can have a transformative impact on internal party politics — look at Bernie Sanders in 2016 as an example. Additionally, Trump will be 82 in 2028 and, if he wins, he will be legally ineligible to run. The candidates we’re seeing now could well be a preview of the next election’s frontrunners.