In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the tide appears to be turning in favor of Ukrainian military forces, as their counteroffensive continues to regain lost territory in the northeast. Russian forces are on the run in parts of Ukraine that they had seized early in the conflict. Most recently, Russian troops have retreated from the Balakliya and Izyum area in the Kharkiv region and lost nearly all of the northern region of Kharkiv.
Ukraine has captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April,” reported the Institute for the Study of War.
Moscow described its pullback as a decision to “regroup.” It remains to see how Moscow will react, but fast Ukrainian advances have forced Russia to call up new forces.
Victory in Ukraine, however, is far from certain, as Ukrainian forces cannot guarantee that they can keep their regained areas secure. “A counteroffensive liberates territory and after that, you have to control it and be ready to defend it,” cautioned Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Russia is feeling the pressure of recent war losses, as a group of St. Petersburg politicians called for President Vladimir Putin to be removed from power. The council cited a series of reasons for their appeal, including Russia’s military losses in Ukraine and the damage to its economy from Western sanctions. While this group poses no legitimate threat to Putin’s control of Russia, it does mark a clear expression of dissent by elected officials of Russia, an opinion that is seldom heard, as Russians risk prison sentences for “discrediting” the armed forces. Russian politicians face the dissolution of their district council after a judge ruled that the series of past council meetings had been invalid.
The rapid fleeing of Russian troops indicates a decline in Russian morale. The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russia’s northern front was “collapsing” and that its troops had not simply been ordered to “regroup” as was claimed by Moscow. These successes showcase the change in momentum in the conflict and have collapsed the assumption that Russia would inevitably triumph.
As this conflict is still far from over, the question lingers: What will it take for this war to conclude? We must look at the conditions and goals of each side in order to find an answer. The Russian government continues to call the war a “special military operation” and has censored the use of the words “war” and “invasion” in the Russian media. Putin claims that Ukraine is not a legitimate independent state. Ukraine, along with its Western allies, continues to condemn Russia’s aggression and vows to defend Ukraine as an independent state. As heavy sanctions against Russia continue, the U.S. consistently supplies weaponry and strategic assistance to Ukraine.
Although the war is far from over, Putin’s announcement of a “partial mobilization” of military assistance indicates a shift in the conflict. Ukrainian officials have called Putin’s action a sign of desperation, and an adviser to Ukraine President Volodymzr Zelensky said: “Referendums and mobilization in the Russian Federation will not have any consequences, except for accelerating the collapse and revolution in Putin’s Russia.” It is increasingly clear that Ukraine will not back down anytime soon, and that the more that Russia pushes, the harder that Ukraine and the international community will push back.