On Friday, September 16, the morality police in Iran arrested 22-year-old Mahsa Amini for allegedly wearing her head scarf incorrectly. Amini later died in police custody three days later. Though a coroner’s report found that Amini’s death was a result of multiple organ failure, this diagnosis remains controversial amidst complaints from Amini’s family about police investigation.
The Iranian government uses the morality police, or Gasht-e Ershad, to enforce its stringent Islamic law through verbal reprimands, arrests, and fines. Officers have a specific focus on forcing all women to wear headscarves. Under a variety of different names, the morality police exist to enforce religious law in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, and Malaysia. However, it is important to note that these laws represent the beliefs of the Iranian regime, rather than all Muslims. Amini’s death was met with outrage and the first protests occurred outside Kasra Hospital, where Amini had been hospitalized and died. Thousands of people attended her funeral on September 17, and many women took off their headscarves in a show of their opposition to the mandatory headscarf law.
In at least eighty cities across Iran, protesters are taking to the streets, advocating for women’s rights and the end to the current Iranian regime. Iran’s current government has been standing since 1979, and the country has seen many protests over the past forty-three years. Some of the protests have focused on women’s rights, but most of the movements were focused on government corruption.
The current protests mark the first sustained movement looking for broad political reform since the current regime came into power. Some people speculate that this will be the end of Iran’s government but there is no certainty that it will fall. Analysts believe that protests will end by force rather than government concessions: “Iran-watchers should remember that optimism bias is a real thing, and the regime’s security architecture is purpose-built to crush internal dissent.”
Timeline
On Sunday, September 18, protests that began in Tehran spread all over the country. Since then, protesters have refused to leave the streets. Students in seven universities in Tehran protested on September 19 and were met by security forces that used tear gas, batons, and water cannons to disperse the crowds. Some pictures and reports indicate that security officers fired at the protesters, and several were injured. On the same day, three people in Kurdistan were killed, eighty five were wounded, and over two hundred were arrested. In response, protesters come out in groups so that they can overpower security officials who may try to arrest them. Protesters have chanted phrases such as “Women, life, freedom,” setting police cars on fire and burning headscarves.
As protests rage all over the country, Iran’s supreme leader finally addressed Amini’s death and the public reaction on October 3. He expressed his grief over Amini’s death in a graduation ceremony for military cadets, lamenting, “Yes, this was a bitter incident. My heart was also pained.” He argued that despite the terrible murder, protesters are overreacting: “These were not normal actions. These were not natural. These riots, this chaos, this chaos was planned.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed the U.S. and Israel for instigating the protests.
International Assessments
Many global leaders, including US President Joe Biden and European Union heads of state, believe this protest will die out, as has been the pattern in Iran. The current conservative regime is shutting down protesters with security forces, which has historically ended Iranian social movements. In 1999, government-backed security shut down protests against the government. Protesters were arrested, and a reformist paper folded (its demise is linked to the Ayatollah). 2005 and 2006 saw a women’s rights movement with a campaign for legal equality. The movement ended, however, with many members arrested, exiled, or silenced by state harassment. Iranians started the Green Movement to protest the 2009 rigged election. A protester was shot, which riled up fellow protesters, similar to the current movement. After six months, however, security forces decimated the demonstrations. Additionally, the government forced some protesters to make televised confessions about working with the United States. In 2019, security forces shot and killed as many as 1,500 protesters as they protested skyrocketing petrol prices.
Why should the current in Iran protests be any different from past attempts at reform if security forces have shut down every movement since the current regime emerged? The recent demonstrations mimic past movements that failed. Security officials are arresting and killing protesters, and the Ayatollah is accusing the protesters of working with the U.S. On the other hand, the government is caught off guard and seems concerned about the movement and its sustainability. As the Iranian regime tries to shut down the internet, young protesters manage to get videos of protests and police violence on social media and even mainstream news outlets.
It is impossible to make a sure prediction about the fate of this movement, but the explosive violence of the protests is unprecedented in the current Iranian regime. History says that this movement will be crushed by Iranian security forces. However, successful revolutions often follow repeated failures. Even the most experienced analyst will not know when this Iranian regime will fall — until it has been crushed.