Above: Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) on election night, November 2, 2021. Image provided by Reuters.
This article is published under the Opinions Section of The Skidmore News.
On Tuesday, November 2, 2021, millions of Americans voted for state and local politicians, including the role of governor and mayor in some places. As the first Election Day since the tumultuous 2020 Presidential election, tensions were riding high and the results would be indicative not only of the respective candidates, but also of how the nation felt about the Biden Administration. Consequently, Democrats nationwide were disappointed by the results. Most notably, Virginia, a state which Joe Biden won with 54 percent of the vote, elected Republican Glenn Youngkin over Democratic former Governor Terry McAuliffe. Meanwhile in New Jersey, the Democratic Governor Phil Murphy was only narrowly re-elected. However, this could have been predicted and was not particularly unusual given the events of the past year. Nonetheless, this past election cycle and its results are concerning signs for Democrats as to what will come in future elections.
The story of how we got here begins in November of 2020, a year ago. Joe Biden won the 2020 election by a large margin of the popular vote and sizable margin of the electoral college, thanks in no small part to Trump’s unmitigated failure in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a rough election and counting period, he took office to more than 50 percent approval—something which his immediate predecessor never had—and a cautiously optimistic support base.
However, as time went on, it became apparent that Biden was not acting on his promises. Despite stated goals like cancelling student debt, expanding Medicare coverage, $2000 stimulus checks, and national mask mandates, he has not delivered on any of these goals. Instead, the country has been mired in an endless debate over spending bills, even though Biden’s party holds a majority in the House and Senate. While some of this is not directly Biden’s fault, it still negatively reflects on his presidency. Indeed, almost one year in, it is hard to point to a major accomplishment of his administration, a legacy of sorts. As such, it is hardly surprising that some voters who supported Biden did not support the Democratic candidate again a year later.
People will also remember this when voting in 2022 and 2024. Having not achieved any of his stated actions, Biden will have little to argue in his favor for re-election. While in 2020, it was enough to simply state that he was better than Trump and win over millions of voters who otherwise might not have cared for him, the memory of Trump is ever fading and will likely no longer be a sufficient argument in Biden’s favor. Americans will not turn out to elect Democrats in future elections if Democrats do not demonstrate a reason to vote for them. Politicians should work for the people, and if they do not, the people have no incentive to keep them. This spells bad news for the Democrats, who will struggle to give voters an incentive to vote for them.
In addition, we are forewarned by what happened before him. After the election, before Biden took office, the period between Election Day and Inauguration Day was like none seen before. For the first time in American history, a candidate publicly refused to accept the results of the election, encouraging mass denial and culminating in a terrorist attack on the US Capitol. This attack has yet to receive the attention it deserves, investigatively or strategically, to prevent its recurrence, leaving open the door for another.
Worse, the Republican Party refuses to condemn it, as it would mean condemning what they agree with. Many politicians within that party, such as Paul Gosar and Marjorie Taylor Greene continue to believe the ideology behind the attack; that is, the idea that Trump actually won the election despite no evidence to support that conclusion. The purpose of this is two-fold. First, to maintain the support of their base. With increasing numbers of GOP voters believing in conspiracy theories like QAnon, any conservative politician who breaks from that narrative is electorally doomed, to be replaced by a candidate who is more radical, who does believe in the modernized blood libel that is QAnon. This is how representatives like Marjorie Taylor Greene, of Jewish space laser fame, find themselves in office: because the base has been radicalized so as to prefer them over moderate politicians. Consequently, a vicious cycle ensues in which farther right-wing politicians are elected to office, further encourage their base to move right, and either move right themselves to win re-election or are replaced by those further right to repeat the cycle.
Above all else, however, the Capitol attack sets a precedent. It normalizes the action of refusing to accept election results and resorting to violence to change results. The Republicans failed this time, but it seems unlikely that that would be their last attempt. In the event that the GOP controls the House and/or Senate in 2022 (which seems likely given the reasons I have aforementioned), they will obstruct any further actions of the Biden Administration, thus destroying any further chance of the administration to incentivize voters. But none of this amounts to what will happen if the GOP controls the chambers come January 2025.
Come January 2025, the combined session will review the electoral votes as usual, a normally uncontroversial procedure that turned violent in January of 2021. That time, the GOP demonstrated that they would not accept the results of an election which they lost. They lacked the power to overturn it at that time, but it seems that if they had had the power (control of the House and Senate), they would have overturned the election. Consequently, it is easy to deduce the same possibility for 2024 in the event that the GOP controls both chambers.
There is still time, but only if the Democrats are able to recognize the failures that led to the disappointing 2021 elections and repair them immediately. This should begin by the Biden administration acting on their stated campaign promises. Use any tools available to make change, this is necessary to maintain stability. This is urgent; there is no time for malarkey.